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The planet could surpass the crucial 1.5°C global warming threshold as soon as three years from now if current rates of carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, according to a stark new warning from more than 60 leading climate scientists. This latest assessment, representing the most up-to-date understanding of global warming, highlights the fragile state of the planet’s climate and the urgent need for swift action.
The Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C Goal
In 2015, nearly 200 countries came together in a historic accord—the Paris Agreement—with a shared goal: to limit global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, roughly the late 1800s. This target was set to reduce the risk of the most catastrophic consequences of climate change, including extreme weather, rising seas, and biodiversity loss.
Yet, despite the international commitment, emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane continue to climb to record highs. The burning of coal, oil, and gas, alongside deforestation of carbon-rich forests, has pushed the global climate system ever closer to the dangerous boundary scientists hoped to avoid.
Climate Impacts Already Felt Worldwide
The impacts of climate change are no longer a distant threat—they are happening now. Extreme weather events, such as the record-breaking 40°C heat experienced in the UK in July 2022, have become more frequent and intense due to human-driven warming. Rising sea levels pose a direct threat to millions living in coastal regions worldwide, with flooding risks amplified by faster-than-expected ocean expansion and melting glaciers.
“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and lead author of the study. “We’re seeing some unprecedented changes, and we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well.”
These trends have been predicted for decades, but the pace and scale of change are now clearly linked to the very high levels of greenhouse gas emissions currently being released into the atmosphere.
The Shrinking Carbon Budget
One of the key scientific tools to understand global warming is the concept of a “carbon budget”—the total amount of CO2 humanity can emit while still maintaining a reasonable chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C. At the start of 2020, scientists estimated this budget at 500 billion tonnes of CO2 for a 50% chance of success.
The new research shows that by early 2025, that carbon budget had shrunk dramatically to just 130 billion tonnes. This reduction reflects not only the continued surge in emissions—currently around 40 billion tonnes per year—but also refinements in scientific understanding.
At present emission rates, the remaining budget could be exhausted within about three years, effectively locking in a breach of the 1.5°C target. The researchers caution, however, that while breaching the budget would commit the planet to exceeding 1.5°C, actual global temperatures might surpass this level a few years later due to natural variability.
Warming Already at Historic Levels
Last year marked a new milestone when the global average air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record. Although a single year does not constitute a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement, and factors like natural weather patterns contributed to the extreme heat of 2024, human-induced warming remains the dominant cause.
On average, the world is warming at a rate of about 0.27°C per decade—far faster than any known natural warming episodes in the geological record. If emissions remain high, projections suggest the planet could hit the 1.5°C warming mark around 2030.
After reaching this threshold, it might be possible in theory to reduce long-term warming by removing significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere using emerging technologies. However, scientists warn that relying heavily on these unproven “carbon removal” methods is risky.
“For larger exceedance [of 1.5°C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today’s emissions,” explained Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London.
Every Fraction of Warming Matters
The study underscores that the difference between 1.5°C and higher levels of warming is not a simple on/off switch between “safe” and “dangerous.” Instead, every fraction of a degree matters, amplifying the severity of heatwaves, storms, sea-level rise, and ice melt.
One striking metric discussed by the researchers is the Earth’s “energy imbalance”—the rate at which excess heat accumulates in the climate system. Over the past decade, this heating rate has more than doubled compared to the 1970s and 1980s and is about 25% higher than in the late 2000s and 2010s.
“That’s a really large number, a very worrying number,” said Dr. Matthew Palmer from the UK Met Office and the University of Bristol.
This rise in heat accumulation is largely driven by greenhouse gas emissions but is also influenced by a reduction in aerosols—tiny particles that historically had a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight away from Earth.
Most of this extra heat—about 90%—is absorbed by the oceans. While this prevents even faster warming of the atmosphere, it disrupts marine ecosystems and causes sea levels to rise. Warmer water expands, and combined with water from melting ice sheets, sea levels are rising at twice the rate seen in the 1990s.
Signs of Hope and Urgency
Despite the bleak outlook, the study authors note some slowing in the growth of emissions, driven by the adoption of clean energy technologies. Still, they emphasize that “rapid and stringent” emissions cuts are urgently needed to change the current trajectory.
The 1.5°C target was chosen because the impacts of climate change at 2°C warming would be substantially more damaging. But rather than a strict threshold, warming is a continuum: every bit avoided reduces harm.
“Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming,” said Professor Rogelj. “Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering, especially for poor and vulnerable populations.”
Conclusion: A Call to Action
The findings make clear that the world is perilously close to crossing a major climate boundary, with devastating impacts likely if emissions continue unchecked. The shrinking carbon budget and accelerating warming underline the importance of immediate, substantial emissions reductions worldwide.
While new technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere may play a role in the future, they are no substitute for cutting emissions now. International cooperation, policy reforms, and widespread adoption of renewable energy and sustainable practices remain essential.
In the words of Professor Forster, “We can still change the course we’re on—but the window is closing fast.”